Fantasy Sports Heroes

Sunday, June 01, 2008

Duds and Stud of Baseball 2008 - The First Two Months

The Fantasy Baseball season is less than halfway over, there’s still plenty of time to improve or to regress.  But the first few weeks of any fantasy season are important—early success gives your team some margin for downturns later in the year, and (more

importantly) increases the value of your players in trade deals.  By trading your players when they are at peak value and picking up other owners’ players while they are slumping, you gain a tremendous edge on the competition.

I’ll start by going through a list of the “Top 100” players in the pre-season (according to Rotowire’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2008.)

Part 1: 1 - 20

1. Alex Rodriguez - the concensus pick for #1 draft choice going into this season, A-Rod has been a disappointment this season.  Injuries put him on the Disabled List for a while, but even before that he wasn’t playing as well as expected.  Now he’s back and

playing well, but you were better off picking second in your draft this season.

2. Albert Pujols - he’s been great this year, consistently in the top 20 players in the MLB.  He’s exactly what you were expecting when you spent your first round pick on him.

3. Hanley Ramirez - until recently Ramirez delivered as advertised—speed and power to plug into your Short Stop spot with no worries.  Lately he’s been hampered by a thumb injury.

4. Matt Holliday - Holliday was good early in the season although his production has been depressed from last year (along with the rest of the Rockies.) A late-May hamstring injury has him out for another week and a half.

5. David Wright - a nice player to own this season, Wright’s been batting well all year.

6. Ryan Braun - definitely worth the cost, he’s been good this year.

7. Miguel Cabrera - the whole Detroit Tigers organization has been a major disappointment this season, they are losing a ton of games they were supposed to win easily.  And Cabrera was perhaps the most hyped player on the team going into this year.  Back

in Florida he was amazing so fantasy owners were drooling at the gain in his OBP and RBI with the huge upgrade in protection.  Hasn’t happened yet.

8. Chase Utley - smart owners drafted Utley to gain a big positional advantage because he gives you production at 2nd base you can’t get from any other player.  And this season, it turned out, he’s better than ever.  At the moment he’s leading everyone in

Home Runs and power stats.

9. Jimmy Rollins - last year Rollins was one of the league’s top Short Stops, but this year he got injured early and has been struggling to catch up.

10. Jose Reyes - a speedster who won’t hurt your power stats because he plays at Short Stop where less is expected, Reyes slumped through the first few weeks of the season.  He began catching up in May and is nearly to the point of justifying that ealry

pick.

11. Carl Crawford - nice speedy OFer, and Crawford began the season very well.  He slowed down a bit in May, worth the pick though.

12. Ichiro Suzuki - consistant but under-performing compared to pre-season expectations.  If you drafted him in round one you might wish you’d picked up someone else.  Still, he’s extremely reliable.

13. Ryan Howard - he’s definitely improving after a poor April showing.  Howard is actually one of those players who does his best work late in the season so if you drafted him with that in mind he’s right on target.

14. Grady Sizemore - some disappointment here as Sizemore was widely expected to explode this season and it hasn’t happened yet.  He’s been productive at least, and every day could be a big one.

15. Vladimir Guerrero - frightening in week one, he kicked off the season with a major surge.  But since then his production has really dropped off, now he’s approaching the point of being a liability.  If you own him you have to hold on and hope for the best. 

If you don’t own him he could be a bargain at this point.

16. David Ortiz - very frustrating to own as Ortiz began the season in his worst slump in years.  He’s worked his way out of it and is back to the level of production you expect from him.  However the latest word is that he’s dealing with a sprained wrist.

17. Johan Santana - one of three Aces that were highly touted going into the season, so far Santana has been servicable.  He hasn’t let you down but he cost you a lot for pitching that is dependable but not uniquely excellent.

18. Carlos Lee - a little light on productivity this season.  Not bad, not quite good enough to sustain this level of expectation.

19. Alfonso Soriano - streaky? Maybe, but after a slow start Soriano has been a force to be reckoned with in May.  A seven Home Run week makes up for several weeks of lackluster numbers.

20. Prince Fielder - early in the season he wasn’t hitting.  Now he’s hitting but he’s not yet blasting the two or three home runs a week he was churning out last season.  Still valuable without the power but you drafted him for the power.

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Offensive Fantasy Analysis: Cleveland Indians

We continue today in the midwest. What Indians should you be looking to add to your tribe, if any?

Grady Sizemore, CF: A prized possession, Sizemore seems to have taken a dive in May—although the power numbers have come up. Maybe the .219 BA and 4 HRs in May might indicate that someone is swinging a little too hard? Get back to basics, Grady. Dig ‘em out. Play the game that suits you.

Jamey Carroll, 2B: If you own this guy, you’d be probably the only one on the planet who does. He’s in the lineup for his glove, and bats 2 because he’s reasonably fast—but his bat has gone down the tubes so far this season, currently below the .200 mark. No power at all, in 6 years he’s hit 9 HRs. Still, he’s one of the better options the Indians have at second base—so that’s a problem. He’s been getting the bulk of the ABs lately over Asdrubal Cabrera, who’s been postively awful at .177.

Travis Hafner, DH: Hafner’s hitting way below his weight. After a terrible April, he’s muddling through a mediocre May. It looks like 2007’s drop-off in power may be a permanent correction with only 4 dingers so far in 2008. Worse, he’s sporting a huge 10:19 BB:K ratio. File squarely in the ‘bust’ category.

Victor Martinez, C: One of the league’s top catchers continues to perform, but has yet to go yard in 2008. Also a significant cooling off in May after a red-hot April. Where is the power stroke, though? Does Cleveland need to hire a new batting coach or something? I’m sure Eric Wedge is scratching his head about what’s going on with his sluggers. A buy-low candidate if you can find someone willing to sell.

Jhonny Peralta, SS: Another Indian batting 40 points below his historical average. .225. Peralta does lead the Indians with 8 HRs so far, but his batting woes have extended to his play on the field: over the weekend, he added two errors to his team-leading five (he shares this dubious honor with Casey Blake.) The frustration in the Cleveland locker room must be palpable. Peralta is one of those “must turn it around” guys, and I’d say he will—for Fantasy purposes, he’s a pretty clear buy-low option.

Ryan Garko, 1B: Is he an ideal fantasy first baseman? Not at all. Light hitting, and though historically he’s batted around .280 you definitely want a big bat at the corners. Seems to be getting a better hold of the ball lately, which is a big relief because clearly he’s been suffering from whatever disease is going around the Cleveland clubhouse. A stopgap first base option at best.

Franklin Gutierrez, RF: Gutierrez was hot for like three games at the beginning of the season. He mustered a lackluster .250 BA and displayed zippo in terms of power throughout April. And then the May Indian malaise hit him, and hit him hard. Through May, he’s batted .132 with (as you would expect)—zero RBIs, 1 walk, and 9 Ks. If you own him, you must go have yourself checked out right away. If you’re considering getting him and stashing him, please send me a note explaining why you think there’s any upside here over a gazillion other guys.

Casey Blake, 3B: There’s a reason Blake bats near the bottom of the order a lot. For a third baseman, he’s not so hot. Another Indian batting 40 points below his historical average, you say? I’m shocked. With Blake, though, there’s not a lot of upside. 110 HRs in 9 years in the bigs doesn’t do much to get you excited, even if he starts swinging the bat better.

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Offensive Fantasy Analysis: Cincinnati Reds

Today begins our journey through the majors, team-by-team, with one single goal: to give you some insight as to who belongs on your fantasy squad!

We begin in Cincy. Although trying to nail down the Reds line-up is almost an exercise in futility, here’s the most common line-up Dusty Baker uses:

Corey Patterson, CF: in 110 plate appearances, Patterson has only managed an OBP of .266. A light hitting guy who’s fast, he isn’t getting it done in ‘08 thus far. He’s also the guy most likely to lose his job when 21 year-old Jay Bruce gets the call, but it’ll be tough for the Reds to swallow that $3MM they gave Patterson. If he keeps batting around .230, though, look for a mid-summer call up.

Jeff Keppinger, SS: Busted his kneecap. Yowtch. Was batting .324 with a .373 OBP. Probably won’t be back until July at the very earliest. Journeyman Jerry Hairston Jr. is now playing short. While he’s gotten off to an OK start, you’re looking at a career .254 AVG guy who’s hit 34 HR in 2,588 plate appearances. We are talking stop-gap only. Keppinger probably isn’t worth reserving, either.

Ken Griffey Jr., RF: Junior is old. So old that perhaps it’s time to drop the “Junior.” He won’t be available in your league, because he’s so well known and is, of course, closing in on 600 career HRs after 19 years in the majors. If you own him, you probably overpaid for a .250 average, 4 homers, and a 10:13 BB:K ratio. Don’t feel so bad, though—the Reds are paying him north of $8MM for this!

Brandon Phillips, 2B: This is where you can start to get excited about the Reds. After a slow April, Phillips is starting to pay off on all of that promise that we saw in ‘07 and is proving that it was no fluke. There’s no way you’ll be able to grab him, most likely—he’s a star at a super-thin position—but damn, if you can, he’s worth it. A 30/30 threat who’s been making noises about moving over to SS if the boss’ll let him.

Adam Dunn, LF: The big dog is waking up. After racking up tons of walks in April, he’s finally starting to see some pitches. 5 HR in his past 5 games. He’s still only batting .231, but that should pick up a bit. His OBP of .373 tells you the rest of the story, along with the protection around him in the form of Phillips and Encarcion.

Edwin Encarnacion, 3B: After batting .293 in April with 7 HRs, Encarcion has had a terrible May and lowered his average to .248, and only gone yard once since April 24. Hopefully there’s a golden thong in the Reds locker room that Edwin can wear, or at least get Jason Giambi to send him one. Was April just a fluke, or a sign of potential break-out from the 25 year-old? A wait-and-see approach seems warranted. I can’t get too excited, but the upside is there.

Joey Votto, 1B: The three homer game on May 7 was all most people needed to see for the Votto land-grab to reach full-on fever pitch. Since getting the everyday first base job, though, Joey V has paid off nicely for fantasy owners. Again, he’s probably not available in your league, but the 24 year-old Votto (along with Dunn and Phillips) should form the cornerstone for the future of the Cincinnati Reds. He keeps this pace up, 30/100 is not unreasonable or unthinkable at all.

Paul Bako, C: Bako has been surprisingly productive. The guy has bounced all around the majors for 10 years, lands on the Reds, and hits nearly 50 points above his career average through April and May. His hot streak seems to have cooled a bit (at one point in May he was hitting .320!)—and you shouldn’t expect his productivity to continue at this pace at all. But if you have a hole at Catcher and need someone to stop-gap, definitely worth considering. 

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

The great closer debacle of May 2008.

In the same day this past weekend, two marquee closers became ex-closers. Given the state of play in the media in general these days, the news was delivered with Armageddon-scale intensity over the great majority of sports wires and of course, was treated with even less balance within the Fantasy Sports blogosphere.

So, if you have Izzy or Gagne—should you be hysterical?

No. No, I don’t think so.

Why? Because they’ll both be back, closing games, in not too long a period of time. Let’s look at these events objectively for a moment: Izzy pulled himself out of the closer role. It isn’t because he’s lost any speed, it’s because his slider isn’t sliding. This is a mechanical issue which can and will be fixed. Meantime, the Cards don’t want to break a working system with the one-two punch of Frankin and Izzy by making Franklin the permanent closer. Could Franklin be the guy? Possibly. But Franklin isn’t a typical closer—he doesn’t blow people away, he gets crafty outs. And any manager will tell you the huge mental preparation difference between being a 7th/8th inning guy and being the 9th inning guy. Risking a change at closer in not something you want to do, especially when you have a proven workhorse like Jason Isringhausen at your disposal.

Gagne is a different story. It really is in the Brewers’ best interest to get him closing again soon; they don’t even have a guy like Franklin waiting in the wings to pick up the role. They have Sal Torres, who proved to be a disastrous choice as the Pirates closer last year, and was eventually relieved of the role. Oh wait—they also have journeyman Guillermo Mota, who hasn’t closed a game since 2005! No, the Brewers need Gagne to get his head back on straight right quick.

So did you already drop Izzy and Gagne when you saw the news? Don’t be that guy. Bench, don’t drop.

Discuss this post on our forum!

Sunday, May 11, 2008

Grading the Turkey Vultures, first quarter

After six weeks of action, how does your fantasy team grade out?

Follow This Link To Let Us Know You Did In the Thread In Our Forums

Batters

Brian McCann - starting catcher: A-.  Brian’s .309 average, and fine slugging have been a season highlight.

Ryan Howard - starting first baseman - D+ The plus is the home run a week, the D is Don’t Worry.

Rickie Weeks - starting second baseman C- This is below average stuff Rickie, let’s get it going!

Orlando Cabrera - starting short stop Pass.  After trying to do too much, looks like he’s finding the groove.

Chipper Jones - starting third baseman.  A++ I can’t argue with .400, give him the MVP.

Moises Alou - starting Out Fielder. W for Welcome to the team!

Shane Victorino - starting Out Fielder.  B- As in, I don’t want to be minus you again, you amazing specimen.

Pat Burrell - starting Out Fielder - I for Incomplete; got you over a week ago but you haven’t submitted a body of work, have you?

Torii Hunter - starting Out Fielder - O for Outstanding, E for Effort, there have been some Outstanding Efforts

Chone Figgins - reserve second base, third base, outfielder - DL for Disabled List.  I heard it might be a factor with you.

Kazuo Matsui - reserve second base - INT for Interesting.  I can’t cut you, people aren’t ready for your base stealing above average hitting, so you are interesting.

Lastings Milledge - reserve outfielder.  R for Redo.  You’ve done enough to merit six more weeks to prove you are worth rostering.

Orlando Hudson - reserve second base, utility.  B.  B well and you’ll be with us to the end.

Pitchers

Nick Adenhart - starting pitcher - Most Likely To Succeed is what they wrote in his high school year book.  Our team’s piece of the great called up pitcher hunt of 2008.

Joe Saunders - starting pitcher - our Angel on the Mound.  A+ when you can find this on free agency. Bless You!

Matt Cain - starting pitcher - B.  This is your B Game.  Now let’s turn it up a notch.

Randy Wolf - starting pitcher - B+.  Be plus with us and you’ll remain rostered thru to the championship.

Odalis Perez - starting pitcher - A- A minus with you is the run support, you deserve the winning effort from them.

Gavin Floyd - starting and relief pitcher - Grade Pink.  Don’t let it turn red.

Daniel Cabrera - starting pitcher. - check plus!  Look at what this guy can do now!

Takashi Saito.  - closer - A.  Road was rocky but your were benched for us thru the worst parts.

Santiago Casilla. - relief pitcher - A+ I really like 19 innings, 22 K, 1 earned run, 2 wins, 1 save, 7 holds, 0.47 ERA, 0.78 WHIP.  The relief pitching gods smile on me again.

Tony Pena - relief pitcher - Certified Bargain after acquring midquarter with Kaz Matsui for Matt Garza and Akinori Iwamura.

Rafael Soriano - relief pitcher - Urgent Attention Required.  You have two weeks to report for duty in working order.

The prospects for the next quarter are quite good.

Thursday, May 08, 2008

Hate Ohio State?

The team everyone loves to hate.  No, not the NY Yankees.  I’m talking College Football here.  Okay, no, not Notre Lame.  Some of that hate is actually turning to sympathy.  No, I’m talking about The Ohio State University Buckeyes.  Full disclosure says I have to state that I am a diehard Buckeye fan (not psycho, there is a difference).

So what’s the deal, is the hate deserved?  Well, yes and no. 

Yes for two years ago against Florida.  A team that’d been hyped all year bought into the hype and delivered a yawner of a national championship game.  Embarrassing.  We looked like crap and got schooled by a team that came to play.

No for last year.  Sure, in the end it was OSU vs. another SEC powerhouse, and again, OSU lost in a game in which they were dominated.  Another disappointment for the national viewing audience.  But there are important differences that need to be noted. 

First, let’s go back to the beginning of the season.  The Buckeyes were picked to finish third in their conference.  It was a rebuilding year no matter what cute phrase about reloading you want to throw out.  They played well, but not exceptionally, and won the Big 10 and a weak schedule with one loss.  They were not the best team in the country and everyone knew it, especially after the loss to Illinois.  They did more than was expected of them.

Second, there wasn’t a Buckeye fan out there who didn’t give up all hope of making it to the national championship after that loss, and all logic and sports-sense agreed.  The thing was, everyone in front of them kept losing.  They wound up being the only major team with only one loss other than Kansas, and no one was impressed with them either.  So yes, the Buckeyes backed into the big game, mainly by having the wall they were up against turn into a Scooby-Doo secret door that dropped them there unwittingly. 

Third, last year’s team in the National Championship game actually played.  LSU was the better team, and that was apparent, but the game was competitive, and while not as gripping as USC vs. Texas or OSU vs. Miami, it was a decent football game.  It just got lumped in with the Glendale performance since they lost again, to an SEC team, again.

Now we stand at the brink of a new season, and the Buckeye hate machine is still humming along.  No one outside of OSU wants to see the Buckeyes in another national championship game.  But…18 returning starters…a serious Heisman candidate…an early marquee game…and a relatively easy path to conference dominance.  Add it all up, and the Buckeyes have as good a shot as any other team of winding up in Miami this year.  Some will say they don’t deserve it, but IF they beat USC and go undefeated, they’ll be there.  Some say they could make it without beating USC.  I disagree and don’t want them there if they don’t.  I get the national two minute hate.  I think the Buckeyes need to earn chance #3, and to do so they have to win every game.  But if they win every game, and provided there aren’t a raft full of other undefeated teams, the current system can’t tell them no.

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

And the Fantasy rollercoaster ride begins…

Hmm. So, as of this morning on Yahoo, let’s have a look at the Top 10 hurlers.

O-Rnk Rank IP W L CG SV K HLD ERA WHIP
1: Cliff Lee 326 8 37.2 5 0 1 0 32 0 0.96 0.56
2: Ervin Santana 324 9 49.0 6 0 1 0 38 0 2.02 0.88
3: Brandon Webb 39 19 47.0 7 0 0 0 37 0 2.49 1.06
4: Jonathan Papelbon 52 21 16.1 2 0 0 10 21 0 1.65 0.67
5: Carlos Zambrano 71 22 55.0 5 1 0 0 38 0 1.80 1.11
6: Jake Peavy 19 23 48.2 4 1 1 0 46 0 2.22 1.03
7: Edinson Vólquez 331 29 35.1 4 1 0 0 42 0 1.27 1.19
8: Ben Sheets 110 30 39.1 4 0 1 0 32 0 2.29 0.89
9: Joakim Soria 161 38 13.0 0 0 0 8 15 0 0.00 0.31
10: Johan Santana 10 39 46.1 3 2 0 0 47 0 2.91 1.01

Cliff Lee. Ervin Santana. Edinson Volquez. If these guys were drafted in your league, you are either in a league that is ridiculously deep or filled with lunatic baseball geniuses. KFFL’s pre-season analysis of Cliff Lee, Santana, and Volquez from March 21:

Lee, AL Pitcher #69. “The 29-year-old Lee has fallen from grace after once being a promising pitcher. His 6.29 ERA and 1.52 WHIP were the worst of his career. He is the clear-cut favorite for the final rotation spot and could be a late-round pick in AL-only drafts due to his past success.”

Santana, AL Pitcher #43. “Santana was one of the biggest disappointments last season after winning 16 games in 2006. He didn’t get much better as the season progressed, but with Escobar out Santana is all but assured a spot in the rotation to open the season. Don’t forget about him, but don’t draft him.”

Volquez, NL Pitcher #35. “Picked up from the Texas Rangers in the trade for outfielder Josh Hamilton, Volquez was Texas’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year for ‘07. He flashed his talent in six starts with the Rangers. Volquez has pitched well this spring, including a 19-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and is almost a lock for the rotation. He could be worth a pick late in drafts due to his upside.”

Meantime, if you had drafted these three in your rotation, you’d be sitting on a starting rotation with a combined 15-1 record, 112 Ks, a combined ERA of 1.48 and a combined WHIP of 0.87.

John Lackey, who went as average pick number 66 in Yahoo leagues, hasn’t yet thrown an inning of ball through 5 weeks. He might show up for a start next week. So most guys blew a #6 pick on a pitcher who, if you’re lucky, will pitch for 2/3rds of the Fantasy season. Seems to me like the math is against that decision.

I think there might be something to Vulture’s theory about successfully staffing your Fantasy pitching rotation having much to do with luck rather than baseball smarts.

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

FANTASY EYE: SELL GAVIN FLOYD, ARE YOU CRAZY?

Gavin Floyd took a no-hitter, with three walks and four strikeouts, into 8.1 innings tonight.  On April 12th, he had gone 7.1 innings of no hit ball against the Tiger before losing that bid.  His first year as a pro, playing A ball in the Phillies’ system, he had the first nine inning no hitter ever for the Lakewood Blue Claws.  His second year as a pro, playing in AA, he did not allow a run for his first four starts.  His WHIP stood at 1.09 before tonight’s game, it is now, 39.2 innings into the season, an other-worldly 0.96.  He was starting for my fantasy team, because I didn’t accept ‘projections’ and all those warnings from stats-dominated bloggers who warned that he put too many flyballs up to stay good, that he hadn’t turned a corner, that he was cruising for a bruising.  Instead, I accepted what my naked eye told me as I watched him, and what a few of his supporters have said – he’s darn near unhittable.  Floyd is on my team to balance the higher WHIP generated by the higher strikeout guys.  He is not a strikeout pitcher.  But he is also not a late 20s or older groundball pitcher who’s just getting lucky so far, like Tim Wakefield this time last year.

I picked Floyd out of the free agent pool after his no hit bid vs. Detroit.  His gleaming stats at that point led me to him, along with his RP eligibility.  But to become a believer, I had to go deeper than stats and deeper than those who mistake past history for future certitude.  I had to read about his character, his past achievements, his family ties in Annapolis.  I had to watch the Sox rally around him and do their utmost to get him the shutout.  I had to watch the fans cheering and think about what it might mean to a pitcher making league minimum to hold this opportunity and know what to do with it.

“Sell him high” the stats watchers shout.  His K/BB ratio is, after all, 19/18, and so far, eighty five percent of his balls in play have been outs, a number that ‘science’ tells us just has to come down.  I personally am done trying to sell him.  I tried a few weeks ago to move him plus Kaz Matsui for Pat Burrell, who’s owner decided instead to take Ian Snell from me.  Good riddance!  Because say what you want about what the numbers suggest should happen, I feel something else happening.  Ian Snell is in that same dismal netherworld he spent much of the second half of last year, maybe he’ll come out of it, but I don’t “feel” that happening soon.  Gavin Floyd has climbed mount no-hit once in the minors, and started the climb twice this year, tonight falling just short of the summit (through, I might add, questionable tendencies in Nick Swisher’s fitness regimen - brought on by that comforting Chicago cuisine?).  Gavin Floyd’s gonna climb that mountain again and again this year. 

If you CAN sell him high – and really, are there still leagues where owners don’t look online and notice everyone saying “Sell him high” and balk? – go ahead and sell him high if you want to.  If you can’t get a top 150 player for this RP-eligible blossoming Ace, maybe you should listen to this contrarian voice here and keep him around.  I’m telling you that he’ll do wonders for your WHIP all season long, kicking in wins as well.  I don’t care what the numbers suggest.  Gavin Floyd isn’t a number.  He’s a bunch of numbers.  Numbers like 6 foot 5 inches, 230 pounds, 25 years old, 2.50 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 3-1 record.  And he’s more than that – he’s a winner becoming a driving force for a team full of believers filling the stadium with believers.

Fielding in Fantasy Baseball: Put-Outs and Assists

Fantasy Baseball in its classic form is SABRmetrically unsound.  Players are rewarded for statistical achievements that are highly situational, for instance: Runs Batted In, Runs, Wins and Saves.  A pitcher’s Earned Runs Average often has more to do with great fielding than great pitching.  Stealing Bases is worth a lot more in Fantasy Baseball than in the real game.

Fielding statistics, at least the ones included in Box Scores used to calculate Fantasy Points, are also SABRmetrically unsound.  There are some efforts to create better measurements for this aspect of the game, but so far nothing comes close to the relevance of baseball’s batting statistics.  (Baseball’s percentile statistics batting AVeraGe, On Base Percentage and SLuGging percentage are probably the most meaningful simple statistics ever developed for any sport.)

Yet the situational statistics in Fantasy Baseball are a big part of the fun.  Within the context of the Shadow Game, they are predictable based on a player’s team and position on his team.  For instance, a player who bats early in the line-up for a team that has a lot of big bats is likelier to score more Runs.

So there’s no harm in adding a couple of SABRmetrically dubious fielding stats into the game.  The game is already based on the effects of quality baseball team building rather than the cause.  I’ve given this much thought and I think that two fielding stats would add a lot to the playing experience.  They are Put Outs and Assists.

Put Outs rewards players who’s situation is that they have quality fielding 1st Basemen and Catchers (and to a lesser extent, 3rd Basemen.) Assists benefit the league’s 2nd Basemen and Short Shorts (and to a lesser extent, Outfielders, though OF catch the long pop fly Put Outs too.)

The neat thing about these two stats is that they balance each other out and give fantasy owners additional complexity to plan around.  Generally those players who are considered “good fielders” are going to rack up a lot of Put Outs and Assists.  Your fantasy league can keep track of the league’s genuine Golden Gloves.  And it gives additional incentive to draft field-playing players over Designated Hitters.

Mixed Leagues vs AL or NL-Only Leagues

It’s common practice in fantasy leagues to draft from only the National or American League pool of players.  If a player changes leagues due to a real-life trade the poor owner who held him in his old League has to replace him, and he shows up on the Waiver Wire of his new League’s Fantasy rosters.

This adds an element of chance to the game—will your player get traded away and therefore out of your line-up?  But at the expense of some of the stability of Mixed play.  It also makes the player pool “artificially” deep for leagues with fewer players.  If a standard NL or AL only league has twelve owners, that’s the equivalent of a Mixed league with twenty-four owners.  Deep.

On the other hand, the “leagues” really are all one big League.  It’s limiting to exclude a huge number of stars simply because they happen to play on the other side of the World Series.

One possible variation is that in a NL-Only league you could include your Pitcher’s batting stats in the mix.  Quality hitters like Micah Owings have increased value in such situations, while the league’s notoriously poor pitchers have to be that much better to compensate.

And if you ran two “Only” leagues with the same set of owners you could set up rules where a traded player’s owner in his old league has first choice to take the player in his new league.  (Dropping an existing player to make space for him.)

What do I do now with that #22 jersey in my closet?

A guy I looked up to, at least as an athlete—is completely discredited. It turns out the worst of our instinctive thoughts about a guy who pitched as if every at bat was a confrontation was all too true. I pooh-poohed his proud proclamation that he didn’t own books; after all, what bearing does a man’s intellectualism have on his athleticism?

But his Texas-sized appetites and lack of introspection regarding what drove him have turned out to matter after all. The pure competitor in him led him down the path of the cheater, down the path of the hypocrite, and down the path of the liar. Win at all costs. Carry on with underage girls. And oh yeah, have no compunction about pitching at someone’s head with a 95 MPH fastball. Clichéd and sad. And downright disheartening. We all used to
say that he was a phenomenon; his dedication and focus enabled him to excel well beyond the years men like him were supposed to be able to do so. The phenomenon, it turns out, was a phony.

So I won’t be dragging out Roger’s jersey this year when I head down to the stadium. Although I love the Yankees and always have, I am choosing to set aside the part of the legacy that now inexorably includes a tainted man. Admitting you’re wrong about something is never easy. Admitting you have fundamentally erred in judgment about another human being?

That’s as difficult as throwing away an expensive shirt that you’ll never wear again without feeling ashamed.

Saves, Holds and Quality Starts

Saves is a classic rotisserie league stat, featured in 4x4 and 5x5 leagues since the dawn of modern fantasy baseball.  It’s so well-established that few would consider scrapping it, despite it’s dubiousness value in the real game of baseball.

A Save is defined as follows:

A save is a statistic credited to a relief pitcher, as set forth in Rule 10.19 of the Rules of Baseball. That rule states the official scorer shall credit a pitcher with a save when such pitcher meets all four of the following conditions:

a. He is the finishing pitcher in a game won by his team
b. He is not the winning pitcher
c. He is credited with at least 1/3 of an inning pitched (one Out)
d. He satisfies one of the following conditions:

1. He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning
2. He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, or at bat or on deck
3. He pitches for at least three innings

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Save_(baseball)

The effect in fantasy play is to make the league’s most established Closers among the most valuable players in a draft.  In a 4x4 league these players are solely responsible for 1/8th of the points you’ll earn all season.  There are, at most, thirty of them in all of Major League Baseball, and the position is very volatile so only a percentage of the Closers at the start of the season will make it all the way through the year.  At the end of any season you’ll count perhaps twenty players who produced the majority of the Saves.

Closing is a high-stress job—it’s a highly visible position because everyone is paying attention when the lead is on the line in the last inning of the game.  But it’s arguable how much more important it is to keep batters from scoring in the ninth inning as opposed to every other inning.  And it takes just as much effort to hold the opposition to zero runs when a team is ahead by more than three runs, it’s that there’s less margin for error if it doesn’t work out.

The statistic is definitely not SABRmetrically sound (similar to Clutch hitting, or Runs Batted In, in depending too much on situational factors to be a useful gauge of player ability in and of itself) but it’s great for fantasy play.

But what about all the Middle Relievers who keep the score tight for their Closers as the game advances to the ninth inning?  In extremely deep leagues, it might be necessary to make these pitchers useful to have enough of a player pool to draw upon.  Since in SABRmetric terms there’s little difference between holding the opposition to zero runs in any inning (not just the ninth) it makes sense to use Holds in deep fantasy leagues.

A Hold is defined as:

A hold is a statistic credited to a relief pitcher who is not the final pitcher for his team who
a. enters the game in a save situation; that is, one of the following three conditions applies:

1. his team has a lead of no more than three runs, and there are at least three outs remaining
2. the potential tying run is either on base, at bat, or on deck
3. there are no more than three innings remaining in the game

b. records at least one out (1/3 of an inning pitched);
c. leaves the game without his team having relinquished the lead at any point.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holds

With the addition of HoLDs the value of the league’s Closers takes a hit.  Fantasy owners have a much larger pool of players who can earn Holds, so they can play for both Holds and Saves or they can try to dominate Holds at the expense of Saves.  Since very few leagues are using Holds, there is potential for tremendous market inefficiency when it comes to the statistic.

Both Holds and Saves emphasizes Relief Pitching over Starting Pitching.  The pitching side of the classic 4x4 scoring rules uses the following statistics: Wins, SaVes, Earned Run Average, Walks + Hits/Inning Pitched.  Relief Pitchers tend to have lower percentage stats than Starting Pitchers, so an all-reliever staff has the edge in SV, ERA and WHIP—three out of four stats.  Only W confers an advantage to a team with strong starting pitching.  (This is why Closers are so valuable in standard league, and priced so high in fantasy baseball magazines and cheat sheets. (Although for practical purposes a winning team needs Starting Pitchers who post a low ERA and WHIP as well.))

It’s a little better in a 5x5 league, which adds striKeouts (StrikeOuts), because Relief Pitchers simply don’t pitch enough innings to compete with SPs for that point.

But to emphasize Starting Pitching even more, a league might adopt Quality Starts.  QS is an even more cutting-edge stat than Holds, only recently available on Yahoo.  It is to Starting Pitchers what SV and HLD are to Relief Pitchers.

A Quality Start is defined as:

In baseball statistics, a quality start is awarded to a starting pitcher who completes at least six innings and permits no more than three earned runs.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality_start

The QS is probably a better guage of pure pitching ability than the Win, since the Win is affected by how well the pitcher’s team bats.  Quality Starts are independent of batting.  It’s new, and therefore controversial, but SABRmetrically sound.

An early criticism of the statistic, made by Moss Klein, writing in The Sporting News, is that a pitcher could conceivably meet the minimum requirements for a quality start and record a 4.50 ERA, seen as undesirable at the time. Bill James addressed this in his 1987 Baseball Abstract, saying the hypothetical example (a pitcher going exactly 6 innings and allowing exactly 3 runs) was extremely rare amongst starts recorded as quality starts, and that he doubted any pitchers had an ERA over 3.20 in their quality starts. This was later confirmed through computer analysis of all quality starts recorded from 1984 to 1991, which found that the average ERA in quality starts during that time period was 1.91

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality_start

If your league is willing to break tradtion and adopt a couple of extra pitching stats, Holds and Quality Starts make a lot of sense, especially for very deep leagues.  By substituting QS for Wins, a deep league can simulate the contributions of most of the pitchers in the MLB with six stats:

QS, SV, HLD, ERA, WHIP, K

Then on the batting side use batting AVeraGe, Home Runs, Runs Batted In, Stolen Bases, Runs and a sixth stat (perhaps On Base Percentage or SLuGging percentage or OnBase+Slugging percentage) to balance them.

Friday, May 02, 2008

Book Review: Fantasyland by Sam Walker

The Moby Dick of Fantasy Sports books, Fantasyland tells the novelistic true story of one sports journalist’s attempt to win one of the nation’s toughest Rotiserrie Fantasy Baseball Leagues with no prior Fantasy Baseball experience.

“Tout Wars” is the name of the league he is invited to join.  It’s composed of twelve sports experts (especially experts in Rotisserie baseball, guys who make their living publishing books and operating web sites devoted to winning.) Walker uses his credentials as a journalist to get into the league, then uses his connections in Major League Baseball to get an edge on his competition.  His job takes him to Spring Training and to ballparks all over the country, and over the course of the fantasy season (and through the book) he interviews general managers, coaches and dozens of players.  He also spends thousands of dollars hiring a statistician and a baseball expert to help him develop a plan to win and to consult with in the management of his team.

The heart of the book is Walker’s fantasy season, from scouting in winter and spring, the draft in late March and the games of summer and fall of 2004.  Walker uses his season as the framing device for a history of fantasy baseball and mini-bios of everyone in his league and several guys who could be credited with inventing and popularizing the game.  The narrative jumps around in time, sometimes taking huge leaps back to the 60s, 80s or 90s, sometimes taking mini-leaps ahead a few months.  Walker likes non-linear storytelling.  He also describes the development of the statistical approach to baseball in a way that compliments Michael Lewis’ brief history of it in Moneyball.

I really enjoyed the book and finished it in a couple of days of intense reading.  I think any fantasy games fan will recognize common experiences in Walker’s season and their own, and I feel like I have a much better grasp on how this game got started and became what it is today.  It’s well-written, funny and charming.  Recommended.

Thursday, May 01, 2008

How To: Convert HTH Standings into Roto Standings

This is the first in a series of articles dedicated to pulling stats out of Yahoo’s Fantasy Games and converting them into spreadsheet format.  By doing so, you will gain a lot more control over how you view and organize the data.

In this installment I will show you how to pull the season-to-date Head-to-Head category totals out of the Fantasy Baseball game into Excel, and then use the spreadsheet to calculate the league’s “Rotisserie” scoring (as if you were playing Roto-style.)

It takes some time, but it can be a useful way to analyze your team’s strengths and weaknesses.  Rotisserie-style scoring is less influenced by random chance than Head-to-Head scoring.  In HTH you can be leading the league with weak statistical production by virtue of having the most favorable match-ups.  Or you can be getting clobbered week in and week out - despite putting up great numbers - because you have the terrible luck to face a tough schedule.  While there are nuances of building an effective HTH team that are lost in a Roto analysis it can be very illuminating to see the numbers in a different way.  Stats you do well in over the course of the season are stats you tend to do well in week-to-week.

PHASE ONE: Gathering the data

Looking at your League tab, you’ll see a link just above and to the right of the Standings labelled “Head-to-Head Stats.” Click on it.

Just under the “Head-to-Head Stats” titles, you’ll see a link labelled “Totals.” Click on it.

Highlight all the data from the “Team Name” title to the stat in the lowest right-hand corner.

Open up Notepad (or any Text Editor.)

Paste the data into your Text Editor.

Very important—delete the space between “Team” and “Name” and any spaces in your league’s team names.  You need to get rid of these to make the conversion to Excel go smoothly.

After it’s edited, “Save as...” your text.

Here’s the file name system I use: “FB2008_Wk4_HTH_Bat”

FB = Fantasy Baseball
2008 = the season
Wk4 = the last week completed in your league this season
HTH = this is my code for any data extracted from the Head-To-Head Stats section
Bat = indicates that these are the Batting/Hitting stats only

You can close Notepad for now.

Back at your Yahoo League, click on the link labelled “Pitchers.”

Copy this data into a SECOND Notepad/Text file and Save as… it.  I name this file “FB2008_Wk4_HTH_Pit”

Close Notepad.  Now you are ready to import your text files into Excel (or an alternate spreadsheet program.)

to be continued

April Showers: What The Blowouts of April 30 Mean to Fantasy

Yesterday the Cubs shook the Brewers 19-5.  The Dodgers took care of the Marlins by a score of 13-1.  And – yes, these are being listed in inverse order of surprise - the Pirates defeated the Mets by the same score.  If you had players on the giving end of these onslaughts – namely Nate McLouth, Xavier Nady, Matt Kemp, James Loney, Blake Dewitt, Aramis Ramirez, Geovany Soto, and others you were less likely to own or be playing… congratulations.  It is time to check your head and figure out if your guys May flower into solid producers all year or if now is the time to shake them off your umbrella for more promising boys of summer.

That the Cubs are an offensive force this year is no surprise.  They’ve implemented a bold strategy more and more clubs ought to try – playing players who produce – like Ronny Cedeno, Mark DeRosa, Reed Johnson and benching players that don’t (like Pie).  Jiggling their lineup to make sure even with Theriot healthy they can get Cedeno in there with his World Series bluster and bat to backup his big mouth so far.  And so far, I can’t say it is a bad idea to own any productive Cubs.  They are a team on a mission this year, and while we can predict some decline from DeRosa (a STEAL if you stole him in the middle/late rounds of the draft as an everywhere backup) and certainly the usefulness of Cedeno without a regular starting gig has been questioned (but I mean, isn’t having him show up three times a week and slug the crap out of the ball better than having Tulowitzki or Jeter or O-Cab as your starting SS and taking all… those… not… hits?), I’m not going to tell you to sell any of your Cubs hitters high, and you weren’t going to anyway because you’re a Cubs fanatic, right?  If you have their starting pitchers, though, you missed the chance to sell high before the season started.

What to say about the Dodgers?  They’re letting their young guys have a shot – still not enough of a shot, with more Andruw Jones than necessary, though he did manage two walks in three at-bats during the blowout.  Now they were playing the Marlins who are always a safe bet to start your batters against, but this also looks like a more determined team than last year’s crew.  Kemp and Loney owners have great keepers for keeper leagues, but if you aren’t in a keeper league I still advise finding east coast bats or west coast hurlers for them in trade if you can bank on their production so far and upside to land more trusted talent.  DeWitt had 4 rbis, and has played well in the chances he’s gotten, but his future is super shaky and, well, you weren’t banking on a Dodgers for your three bagger anyhow, right?  Better than the 13 on the winner’s side here is the 1 on the loser’s side.  In not-as-pitchy-a-park as their home stadium, the Dodgers managed to generate only five hits, five walks, and twelve strikeouts between two pitchers, Billingsley who was sharp for seven innings, and Kuo who had no problem finishing the game off.  Load up on Dodgers pitching.  I’m kicking myself for not starting Saito this week when he finally got himself online.

If you thought it was odd that the Pirates-Mets game was delayed 45 minutes not because of rain, but because of a busted water main that delayed the watering of the infield, that was nothing compared to what happened next.  In the second inning the Pirates sent 12 to the plate against Oliver Perez, and by the end of that inning Perez’s day was over and the Pirates led 7-0.  Nate McClouth continued a sick sick season for a Pirates leadoff batter, collecting his 23rd, 24th, and 25th rbis on the season… putting him in a five way tie for third place in rbis – this from a leadoff guy – for the Pirates!!!  Second place for rbi so far in all of baseball is his teammate Xavier Nady.  Whom I personally taunted during opening day for the Braves, seated in his part of the outfield telling him Chipper was going to ‘hit one he couldn’t catch’… moments before Chipper struck out, then Nady came to bat and hit a home run right into our section.  Youch.  The Cubs are a century removed from their last World Series win, so there’s motivation there.  Division rivals the Pirates are on the cusp of tying the longest losing season streak in baseball, so they also have motivation to play their guts out, and like the Cubs and the Dodgers, management are going with the hot hands.  If you own Doumit, you’ve got a great catcher option, and if you own McLouth, you have one of this year’s all stars.  If you own Nady, now is the time to sell high.  The Pirates are after all already in last place in their division, Gorzellany just registered back tightness, Nady is notorious for fast starts and steady declines, and he’ll be traded someplace that doesn’t really need him and Steve Pearce called up to fill his spot when the Pirates decide that they will have to focus on not breaking the record for losing seasons next season.

And if you are heavily invested in the up and down Brewers, the surprising so far Marlins, or the head-scratching Mets… sorry…